Saturday, September 12, 2009

Recovery

There is an announcement from the OECD that "Composite Leading Indicators point to broad economic recovery". In other words the OECD is declaring victory over the current recession...

The following graph is an overview of all the OECD countries. This isn't what I would call a "recovery". It is a bounce back from the depths. But these "leading indicator" levels are still below what they were 6 to 8 years ago. The "recovery" has a long way to go to recover all the ground lost since 2007:


It is a joke to talk about "recovery" in the United States. The US has "recovered" only in the sense that the collapse has ended and there has been a crawl back to the levels last seen in the depths of the 2001-2003 recession:


Canada is not really "recovered". It is back to where it was at the end of the 2001-2003 recession. The word "recovery" is applicable here only in the sense that the catastrophic drop in "leading indicators" has ended and there has been a bounce back, but it has a long way to go:


China appears to be recovering and is back to where it was in 2005-2006:

France does in fact look like a real recovery to me. In this country the leading indicators are now back to where they were in 2007 and headed higher:

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